Arctic Mineral Access: Territorial Competition, Ice Retreat, and the Greenland Contest

Arctic mineral competition has sharpened into a contest over Greenland's rare earth and critical-mineral endowment, accelerated by a 2026 US framework claim on mineral rights and export-credit interest in the Tanbreez deposit. Russia's Arctic resource program advances under Western sanctions, with the Tomtor niobium and rare earth field consolidated under state control, while Chinese Arctic investment has largely been blocked or has failed, complicating the Polar Silk Road narrative. The Northern Sea Route recorded only around 100 transits in 2025 with an open-water window of roughly two weeks, limiting its use as a bulk-ore export corridor. The report establishes where physical access, sovereignty claims, permitting, and strategic minerals intersect, and what the jurisdictional outcomes mean for Western supply planning.