China's African Resource Corridor: Equity, Offtake, and the Contest for Transition Metals

China holds entrenched positions across Africa's most consequential mineral corridors: CMOC has overtaken Glencore as the world's largest cobalt producer from DRC assets, the SMB-Winning consortium accounts for a large share of Guinea's bauxite exports, and the first Simandou iron ore cargo reached China in early 2026 after decades of delay. Infrastructure-for-minerals arrangements, most prominently the renegotiated Sicomines deal, remain the primary financing template and a continuing source of bilateral tension. Western counter-programs led by the Lobito Corridor have made progress on logistics but have not materially displaced Chinese offtake across any of the three commodity chains examined. The report establishes where Chinese offtake is locked and for how long, which positions remain contestable, and what sovereign-renegotiation risk means for security of supply.