Resource Nationalism Index 2026: Cross-Country Expropriation and Fiscal Risk Rankings

State assertiveness over mineral assets accelerated materially in 2024 and 2025, with Mali forcing a large settlement from Barrick over the Loulo-Gounkoto complex, Burkina Faso placing several active gold mines under state control, Panama voiding First Quantum's Cobre Panama concession on constitutional grounds, and Chile legislating majority state participation in new lithium production. This report scores 68 jurisdictions across four components: expropriation and nationalization risk, fiscal-regime stability, permitting and contract sanctity, and the trajectory of state-ownership demands. Industry risk data show that more than a third of global copper output now originates in jurisdictions rated high or very high risk, up from roughly 17% in 2016. The index is calibrated to the Q4 2025 operating environment as a cross-country reference frame rather than a single-country profile.