US-China Mineral Trade War: Tariff Escalation, Export Controls, and the November 2025 Truce

China's April 2025 licensing controls on seven heavy rare earths, including dysprosium and terbium, remained active despite the November 2025 trade truce, which suspended but did not terminate the broader October controls on gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite. The truce followed reciprocal US tariffs above 100% and Chinese defense-sector rare earth restrictions that threatened weapons production. US countermeasures have moved beyond tariffs to a Section 232 investigation on processed minerals, a proposed strategic reserve, and a preferential trade zone with price-floor mechanisms aimed at Chinese undercutting. The agreement lowered general tariff rates and restored general export licenses, but the licensing architecture Beijing built remains operative and can be reimposed. The underlying concentration, with China controlling most rare earth mining and the great majority of processing, is unaffected by the truce.