DRC Cobalt: Export Controls, Operator Risk, and Governance Under the Quota Regime

The DRC's February 2025 cobalt export suspension, replaced in October by an annual quota near 87,000 tonnes, cut effective supply to roughly half of 2024 levels and drove cobalt from nine-year lows toward $53,000 per tonne by year-end. The state marketer Entreprise Generale du Cobalt holds a statutory monopoly over artisanal purchases but has executed negligibly against it, leaving traceability and due-diligence obligations unresolved for downstream buyers. Chinese operators control most industrial copper-cobalt output, and the renegotiation of infrastructure-for-minerals deals introduces material contract risk. M23 advances into mineral-rich eastern provinces, under a fragile ceasefire, keep the conflict perimeter within range of Copperbelt logistics.