Energy
Uranium Secondary Supply: From Market Buffer to Deficit Accelerant
Quantifies the remaining contribution of commercial and government inventories, enrichment underfeeding, tails re-enrichment, and MOX recycling to uranium supply, and measures how the erosion of these sources amplifies the primary supply gap through 2028.
$5,50053 pages · PDF · 2.7 MB
Summary
Secondary supply once quietly balanced the uranium market; its erosion is now part of why the market is tight. This report sizes the remaining contribution from commercial and government inventories, enrichment underfeeding, tails re-enrichment, and recycling, and traces the legacy of the downblending programs that have since lapsed. It measures how the depletion of these sources sharpens the primary deficit and shifts the price equilibrium.
Updated Nov 2025 · By Mining Terminal Research
What's inside
Table of contents
- 01Executive Summary: Secondary Supply's Shrinking Role in the Balance Sheet
- 02Taxonomy of Secondary Sources: Volumes, Mechanisms, and Accounting Conventions
- 03Commercial Utility Inventories: Coverage Ratios and Regional Drawdown Rates
- 04Government and Strategic Stockpiles: US DOE, Russian Reserves, and Residual HEU Disposition
- 05Underfeeding at Enrichment Plants: From Structural Surplus to Reversal
- 06Tails Re-Enrichment: Russian Capacity, Economics, and Remaining Feedstock
- 07HEU Downblending Legacy: Megatons to Megawatts in Retrospect and What Succeeded It
- 08MOX and Reprocessing: French and Russian Plant Output and Plutonium Recycle Volumes
- 09Aggregate Secondary Supply Forecast 2025 to 2030: Base, High, and Low Cases
- 10Price Implications: How Secondary Depletion Shifts the Spot and Term Equilibrium
- 11Risk Factors: Policy Disruptions, Russian Sanctions, and Enrichment Capacity Shifts
- 12Data Sources, Methodology, and Assumptions
Charts & data tables
- ↳Uranium Secondary Supply trend dashboard (historical + forward scenarios)
- ↳Contract versus spot price behavior over time
- ↳Producer cash-cost and sustaining-cost ranges
- ↳Utility and industrial procurement cadence
- ↳Project pipeline readiness and commissioning milestones
- ↳Sensitivity matrix: price, cost, and policy variables
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