Energy
Separative Work Units: Enrichment Capacity, Pricing, and the Post-Russia Transition
Quantifies global SWU supply by facility and operator, traces the structural repricing since 2022, and assesses whether Western capacity additions can absorb the Rosatom displacement mandated by the US import ban phase-out through 2028.
$5,20053 pages · PDF · 2.7 MB
Summary
Enrichment has moved from the quiet middle of the fuel cycle to its tightest link. This report sizes separative work capacity by operator, traces the repricing that followed Russia's loss of Western market access, and assesses whether Urenco, Orano, and Centrus can expand quickly enough to cover the gap left by the United States import ban. The high-assay low-enriched uranium requirement for advanced reactors adds a second, harder constraint.
Updated Jan 2026 · By Mining Terminal Research
What's inside
Table of contents
- 01Executive Summary: SWU Market at the Inflection Point
- 02Global Enrichment Capacity by Operator: Rosatom, Urenco, Orano, CNNC, and Centrus
- 03The US Russian Uranium Import Ban: Phase-Out Schedule and Waiver Volumes Through 2028
- 04SWU Spot and Term Price Dynamics: The Structural Reset Since 2022
- 05Western Capacity Expansion: Urenco New Mexico, Orano Expansion, and Centrus Piketon
- 06Utility Contracting Behavior: Coverage Ratios, Contract Tenor, and Diversification
- 07HALEU Supply and Demand: Centrus Output, DOE Allocation, and the Commercial Requirement
- 08China Enrichment Build-Out: CNNC Expansion and the Accessible Western Market
- 09Cost Structure and Investment Economics for New Centrifuge Capacity
- 10Supply-Demand Scenarios 2026 to 2032: Base, Accelerated Expansion, and Persistent Shortfall
- 11Principal Risks: Policy Reversal, Counter-Sanctions, Permitting Delays, and Demand Timing
- 12Methodology and Data Sources
Charts & data tables
- ↳Separative Work Units trend dashboard (historical + forward scenarios)
- ↳Contract versus spot price behavior over time
- ↳Producer cash-cost and sustaining-cost ranges
- ↳Utility and industrial procurement cadence
- ↳Project pipeline readiness and commissioning milestones
- ↳Sensitivity matrix: price, cost, and policy variables
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