Energy
Coal Power Phase-Out: Policy Commitments, Stranded Assets, and the Retirement Gap
Analysis of the divergence between Western coal retirement schedules and real-world execution, quantifying stranded-asset exposure for utilities and examining how policy withdrawal, financing constraints, and rising electricity demand are reshaping phase-out timelines through 2030.
$3,80052 pages · PDF · 2.7 MB
Summary
The gap between coal-retirement pledges and actual closures is the real story of the energy transition. This report contrasts Western retirement schedules with continued Asian build-out, sizes the stranded-asset exposure on utility balance sheets, and weighs financing withdrawal and carbon policy against the load growth from data centers that is keeping plants open. It frames phase-out scenarios to 2030 and the asset exposures that turn on them.
Updated Jan 2026 · By Mining Terminal Research
What's inside
Table of contents
- 01Executive Summary
- 02The Retirement Gap: Pledged Capacity Versus Actual Annual Retirements
- 03Western Phase-Out Trajectories: EU, UK, and North America
- 04Japan and South Korea: OECD Laggards Still Expanding Coal Capacity
- 05Financing Withdrawal: Development-Bank Policies, Export Credit Limits, and Capital Flight
- 06Stranded-Asset Exposure: Write-Down Risk on Utility Balance Sheets
- 07Carbon Pricing and Regulatory Pressure as Retirement Accelerants
- 08The Demand Wildcard: Data-Center Load Growth and Grid Reliability
- 09Securitization Mechanisms and State-Level Coal Transition Finance
- 10Phase-Out Scenarios to 2030: Aligned, Delayed, and Reversal Cases
- 11Investor Risk: Regulated Versus Merchant Coal Asset Exposure
- 12Data Sources and Methodology
Charts & data tables
- ↳Coal Power Phase-Out trend dashboard (historical + forward scenarios)
- ↳Contract versus spot price behavior over time
- ↳Producer cash-cost and sustaining-cost ranges
- ↳Utility and industrial procurement cadence
- ↳Project pipeline readiness and commissioning milestones
- ↳Sensitivity matrix: price, cost, and policy variables
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