Energy
Large Reactor Fleet Expansion: Construction Pipeline, Cost Risk, and Uranium Demand to 2030
Assesses the gigawatt-scale reactor construction pipeline across China, the Middle East, South Asia, and Western markets, quantifying first-core and reload uranium demand as units approach commissioning between 2025 and 2030.
$6,50054 pages · PDF · 2.7 MB
Summary
The reactor build is concentrated in China, but the demand it creates is global. This report inventories gigawatt-scale reactors under construction and planned, weighs the Western large-reactor programs against their cost and schedule record, and adds the license renewals and restarts extending the existing fleet. It converts the commissioning schedule into first-core and reload uranium demand through 2030.
Updated Dec 2025 · By Mining Terminal Research
What's inside
Table of contents
- 01Executive Summary: Fleet Expansion Pace and Uranium Demand Signal
- 02Global Construction Inventory: Units Under Build and the China Concentration
- 03China's Dominant Build-Out: Hualong One, CAP1000, and the Active Pipeline
- 04Western Large-Reactor Programs: AP1000, EPR2, APR1400, and the Barakah Benchmark
- 05Construction Cost and Schedule Risk: Lessons from Vogtle, Flamanville, and Korean Projects
- 06Fleet Life Extension and Restarts: US License Renewals, Palisades, and European Long-Term Operation
- 07Reactor Startups by Year: 2025 to 2030 Commissioning Schedule and Slippage Probabilities
- 08First-Core and Reload Uranium Requirements: Demand Build Through 2030
- 09Fabrication and Conversion Capacity Constraints Upstream of the Reactor
- 10Geopolitical and Regulatory Risk: Permitting, Export Controls, and Technology Transfer
- 11Scenario Analysis: Accelerated Build Versus Persistent Delay and the 2030 Demand Range
- 12Data Appendix: Reactor-by-Reactor Status Table and Methodology
Charts & data tables
- ↳Large Reactor Fleet Expansion trend dashboard (historical + forward scenarios)
- ↳Contract versus spot price behavior over time
- ↳Producer cash-cost and sustaining-cost ranges
- ↳Utility and industrial procurement cadence
- ↳Project pipeline readiness and commissioning milestones
- ↳Sensitivity matrix: price, cost, and policy variables
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