
Precious Metals
Silver Supply-Demand Balance Model: Quantifying the 2026-2030 Deficit Path
Annual supply-demand balance forecasts for 2026 through 2030, modeling mine output, recycling flows, and end-use demand by segment to derive cumulative deficit tonnage, above-ground stock drawdown, and the implied price path as exchange inventories contract.
$4,80047 pages · PDF · 2.5 MB
Summary
This report models the silver market balance year by year from 2026 to 2030. It builds mine and recycling supply against demand from photovoltaics, electronics, and electrification, derives the cumulative deficit, and tracks the drawdown of exchange and vault inventories that ultimately constrains the market. The implied price path follows from the inventory-to-demand arithmetic rather than from sentiment.
Updated Nov 2025 · By Mining Terminal Research
What's inside
Table of contents
- 01Executive Summary: Balance-Sheet Findings and Five-Year Price Trajectory
- 02Mine Supply Outlook: Mexico, Peru, China, and the Byproduct Dependency Constraint
- 03Recycling and Secondary Supply: Electronics, Jewelry Scrap, and End-of-Life Solar Recovery
- 04Photovoltaic Demand Revised: Thrifting, Copper Substitution, and the Net Load Through 2030
- 05Electrical and Electronics Demand: Data Centers, 5G, and Automotive Electrification
- 06Annual Balance Sheets: Surplus and Deficit Estimates by Year, 2026 to 2030
- 07Above-Ground Stock Depletion: LBMA Vault and COMEX Registered Inventory Drawdown Model
- 08Price Implications: Inventory-to-Demand Ratios and Historical Inflection Precedents
- 09Scenario Analysis: Base Case, Substitution Acceleration, and Demand Compression
- 10Risks to the Forecast: Macro Demand Shock, Recycling Elasticity, and New Mine Commissioning
- 11Methodology and Data Sources
Charts & data tables
- ↳Silver Supply-Demand Balance Model trend dashboard (historical + forward scenarios)
- ↳Producer cost-curve comparison by region
- ↳ETF holdings versus price reaction map
- ↳Central bank net-purchase trend and inflection points
- ↳Supply-demand balance with scenario bands
- ↳Sensitivity matrix: price, cost, and policy variables
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