PGM Autocatalyst Demand at the Inflection: Basket Balances Through 2027
Assesses how the ICE-to-EV shift, hybrid powertrain durability, platinum-for-palladium substitution, and South African mine curtailments are reshaping supply and demand balances across the platinum, palladium, and rhodium basket through 2027.
The platinum group metals are being reshaped by the powertrain transition rather than retired by it. This report quantifies autocatalyst loadings across internal-combustion, hybrid, and battery-electric vehicles, tracks the platinum-for-palladium substitution that is now well advanced, and sets tightening emissions standards against the prospect of further thrifting. South African supply discipline and autocatalyst scrap recovery complete the basket balance, which points to divergent paths for platinum, palladium, and rhodium through 2027.
What's inside
- 01Executive Summary: Basket Balance Positions and Price Implications
- 02Autocatalyst Demand Accounting: ICE, Hybrid, and BEV Loadings by Metal
- 03Light Vehicle Production Mix: Regional Powertrain Split and Catalyst-Bearing Fleet Share Through 2027
- 04Platinum-for-Palladium Substitution: Pace, Economics, and Lock-In Effects
- 05Emissions Standards Tightening: China 7 and Euro 7 Catalyst Loading Requirements
- 06PGM Thrifting and Catalyst Efficiency Gains: How Much Loading OEMs Can Remove
- 07South African Mine Supply: Shaft Curtailments, Semi-Finished Inventory Overhangs, and Output Trajectory
- 08Secondary Supply: Autocatalyst Scrap Recovery Volumes and Timing Lags
- 09Palladium and Rhodium Surplus Paths Versus the Platinum Deficit Structure
- 10Scenario Analysis: Accelerated EV Adoption, Hybrid Persistence, and Reverse Substitution
- 11Risk Register: Rand Volatility, Power Costs, and Emissions Regulation Rollback
- 12Data Appendix: Supply-Demand Model Assumptions and Source Notes
- ↳PGM Autocatalyst Demand at the Inflection trend dashboard (historical + forward scenarios)
- ↳Producer cost-curve comparison by region
- ↳ETF holdings versus price reaction map
- ↳Central bank net-purchase trend and inflection points
- ↳Supply-demand balance with scenario bands
- ↳Sensitivity matrix: price, cost, and policy variables
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