Gold Mining Jurisdiction Risk: Fiscal Regime and Sovereignty Scorecard, H2 2025
Rates and stress-tests the fiscal and political risk profiles of fifteen jurisdictions that account for most listed gold-equity value, covering royalty structures, windfall-tax triggers, permitting timelines, and resource-nationalism precedents through late 2025.
Fiscal terms and sovereignty risk now move gold-equity valuations as much as the gold price itself. This report scores the jurisdictions that hold most listed gold-equity value across royalty structures, windfall-tax triggers, permitting, and the rule of law, with particular attention to the Sahel nationalizations, Ghana's royalty reform, and shifting fiscal regimes across Latin America. The output is a comparative scorecard and a view on where re-rating or de-rating risk is building.
What's inside
- 01Executive Summary: Jurisdiction Risk Hierarchy and Portfolio Implications
- 02Scoring Framework: Fiscal Terms, Sovereignty Risk, Permitting, and Rule of Law
- 03The Sahel in Focus: Mali and Burkina Faso Nationalization Mechanics and Contagion Risk
- 04Ghana's Sliding-Scale Royalty Reform: Rate Structure, Diplomatic Pushback, and Producer Impact
- 05West Africa Comparators: Cote d'Ivoire, Senegal, and Guinea Fiscal Regime Updates
- 06Latin America: Peru Formalization Policy, Ecuador's Regulatory Shift, and Mexico Concession Risk
- 07Mature Jurisdictions Under Pressure: Nevada Permitting Timelines and Canadian Provincial Divergence
- 08Australia: Western Australia Ad Valorem Rates Versus Eastern State Regimes
- 09Windfall-Tax Triggers: Rate Escalation Thresholds at Spot and Stress Price Scenarios
- 10Jurisdiction Score Matrix: Composite Rankings Across Fifteen Countries
- 11Risk Outlook and Re-Rating Catalysts: Elections, Code Revisions, and Treaty Arbitration
- 12Data Appendix: Royalty Rate Tables, Mining Code Revision Dates, and Source Notes
- ↳Gold Mining Jurisdiction Risk trend dashboard (historical + forward scenarios)
- ↳Producer cost-curve comparison by region
- ↳ETF holdings versus price reaction map
- ↳Central bank net-purchase trend and inflection points
- ↳Supply-demand balance with scenario bands
- ↳Sensitivity matrix: price, cost, and policy variables
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