China Uranium Procurement: Reactor Pipeline, Offtake Strategy, and Supply Exposure
China

China Uranium Procurement: Reactor Pipeline, Offtake Strategy, and Supply Exposure

China's fourth straight year of ten-plus reactor approvals in 2025 and an operating fleet near 62 GWe place uranium procurement at the center of CNNC and CGN's strategy through 2035.

$4,80050 pages · PDF · 2.6 MB
Summary

China ended 2025 with roughly 62 GWe of nuclear capacity in operation and a further large block under construction, the world's biggest build program by a wide margin. This report sets out the uranium requirement implied by that pipeline under three capacity scenarios for 2030 and 2035, and assesses how far existing channels close the gap. CNNC and CGN have assembled a coordinated procurement position spanning Kazakh equity and offtake, effective control of the operating Namibian uranium mines, and expanding domestic enrichment. Domestic mine output covers only a small share of annual feed, leaving China structurally dependent on imports and long-term contracts. The report evaluates concentration risk in that chain and whether strategic inventory and enrichment flexibility provide a credible buffer.

Updated Nov 2025 · By Mining Terminal Research

What's inside

Table of contents
  1. 01Executive Summary
  2. 02Reactor Fleet Status and Construction Pipeline: Approved Units Through 2025
  3. 03Capacity and Feed-Demand Scenarios: 2025 to 2035
  4. 04Domestic Uranium Production: Reserves, Output, and Coverage Rate
  5. 05Kazakhstan: Equity Holdings, Offtake Terms, and Volume Exposure
  6. 06Namibia and Africa: Rossing, Husab, Langer Heinrich, and Niger Positions
  7. 07Canada and Secondary Markets: Spot Procurement and Diversification
  8. 08Enrichment Infrastructure: Capacity, Russian SWU Imports, and Exports
  9. 09Strategic Inventory: Bonded Warehouse Capacity and Estimated Buffer
  10. 10Fuel-Cycle Integration: Conversion, Fabrication, and Reprocessing Ambitions
  11. 11Supply Concentration Risk and Geopolitical Contingencies
  12. 12Implications for the Global Uranium Balance
Charts & data tables
  • China Uranium Procurement trend dashboard (historical + forward scenarios)
  • China import/export trend dashboard by commodity
  • Smelter margin and utilization tracking
  • Policy-event calendar with demand response
  • Domestic inventory and exchange-flow monitor
  • Sensitivity matrix: price, cost, and policy variables