China Nickel Demand: Stainless Exposure and the Indonesian Supply Concentration

China absorbed more than 60% of global stainless-steel output in 2025, the dominant use of its nickel, while remaining almost entirely dependent on Indonesian-origin feedstock across both the nickel pig iron and battery-intermediate chains. Indonesian material supplied roughly three-quarters of China's ferronickel imports, a share that has risen steadily as Chinese-backed smelters migrated capacity to Sulawesi. Indonesia's lower 2026 mining quota, cut from 2025 levels, introduces the first material supply-side tightening since 2020 and tests whether in-country stockpiles and HPAL intermediates can absorb the shortfall. This report sets out the mechanics of each import leg, quantifies China's exposure by product form, and assesses where quota compression and soft stainless demand intersect.