China Gold Demand: PBOC Accumulation, Consumer Channels, and the SGE Premium

Chinese gold demand split sharply in 2025: bar-and-coin physical investment reached 432 tonnes, a record, and the first year on record that physical investment exceeded jewelry consumption in tonnage. Jewelry offtake fell roughly 25% over the first three quarters, a decline that deepened after a November 2025 VAT change raised effective costs for jewelry manufacturers while leaving direct bar purchases unaffected. The PBOC resumed purchases in late 2024 after a pause and added gold through 2025, taking reported reserves above 2,300 tonnes. In early 2025, regulators authorized ten insurers to allocate to SGE-traded gold, adding an institutional channel with no prior domestic precedent. The report examines each demand channel alongside the import-quota regime and the Shanghai premium, the clearest available indicator of domestic physical tightness.