
Chinese Battery Makers' Raw Material Control: CATL, BYD, and the LFP Integration Model
An examination of how CATL and BYD have structured upstream equity, refining, and cathode integration to secure lithium and cobalt supply, and how the shift to LFP and early sodium-ion deployment is reshaping that exposure.
CATL and BYD together held about two-thirds of the global power-battery market through 2025, and both run vertically integrated sourcing that reaches from mine equity and offtake to precursor refining and cathode production. LFP now accounts for more than 80% of Chinese automotive battery installations, a chemistry whose iron-phosphate inputs structurally cut cobalt and nickel exposure relative to NMC while leaving lithium dependence intact. CATL's multi-billion-dollar upstream push spans Bolivian brine, domestic lepidolite, and DRC cobalt offtake, while BYD has anchored supply through refining joint ventures. China now controls the majority of global black-mass recycling capacity, and CATL's early sodium-ion commercialization is the first credible signal that the chemistry can displace LFP at the entry segment, with implications for marginal lithium demand beyond 2027.
What's inside
- 01Executive Summary
- 02CATL Upstream Asset Map: Mine Equity, Bolivian Brine, and DRC Offtake
- 03BYD Integrated Model: Refining Joint Ventures and Capacity
- 04LFP Ascendancy: Chemistry Share, Cost Structure, and Cobalt Displacement
- 05Sodium-Ion Commercialization: Deployment and Lithium Demand Implications
- 06Precursor and Cathode Integration: Capacity, Ownership, and Margin Capture
- 07Cobalt Dependencies: Producer-Battery Linkages and DRC Concentration Risk
- 08Secondary Recovery: Black-Mass Capacity, Policy Standards, and Recovery Rates
- 09Tier-2 Battery Makers: CALB, Gotion, and EVE Sourcing Divergence
- 10Geopolitical and Regulatory Exposure: Export Controls and Western Tariffs
- 11Supply-Chain Implications for 2026 and Beyond
- 12Data Sources and Methodology
- ↳Chinese Battery Makers' Raw Material Control trend dashboard (historical + forward scenarios)
- ↳China import/export trend dashboard by commodity
- ↳Smelter margin and utilization tracking
- ↳Policy-event calendar with demand response
- ↳Domestic inventory and exchange-flow monitor
- ↳Sensitivity matrix: price, cost, and policy variables
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