China Steel: Output-Cut Policy, Demand Rebalancing, and Raw-Material Imports

China's crude steel production fell roughly 4% in 2025, the sharpest annual decline in a decade, pulling output below one billion tonnes for the first time in years. The policy driver is an accelerating capacity-swap regime, with the replacement ratio raised to at least 1.5 to 1 and output controls committed through 2030. Demand has rebalanced: construction's share of steel use has fallen sharply since 2020, with manufacturing overtaking it as the primary end-use, while displaced supply found a partial outlet in record steel exports near 119 million tonnes. Iron ore imports rose to a record despite the output decline, while coking-coal imports contracted, with Mongolia consolidating share as Australian coal slipped.