Dollar Strength and Metal Prices: Correlation Mechanics and the Post-2022 Regime Shift
Quantitative analysis of rolling DXY and real broad dollar correlations with gold, copper, and the broader metals complex, with particular focus on the breakdown of the real-yield transmission channel after 2022.
The inverse relationship between the US dollar and metal prices has weakened materially since 2022. Gold gained more than 65% in 2025 against a 10-year real yield averaging close to 2%, the highest since 2007, severing a two-decade regression that implied roughly an 18% decline in real gold prices per 100 basis points of real-yield increase. The rolling 60-day gold-dollar correlation swung between about -0.7 and near zero, against a pre-2022 baseline near -0.45 to -0.50. Central bank net purchases sustained above 1,000 tonnes a year appear to be the primary structural factor behind the residual. Copper held a more conventional dollar correlation but diverged from gold in magnitude, reflecting tariff-specific shocks the currency channel does not capture.
What's inside
- 01Executive Summary: The Post-2022 Regime Shift
- 02Dollar Index Construction: DXY Versus the Real Broad Dollar
- 03Historical Gold-Dollar Correlation: Two Decades of Rolling Regression
- 04The Real-Yield Transmission Channel: Mechanics and Pre-2022 Calibration
- 05Regime Break: When Gold and the Dollar Diverged After 2022
- 06Copper and the Broader Metals Complex: Where Dollar Correlation Held
- 07Central Bank Demand as a Structural Residual in the Gold Equation
- 08Tariff Shocks and Commodity-Specific Deviations from the Dollar Signal
- 09Current Regime: What the Dollar Level Implies for Metal Prices Now
- 10Forward Scenarios: Dollar Trajectory and Metals Sensitivity Under Three Rate Paths
- 11Implications for Metals Exposure and Cross-Asset Positioning
- 12Data Sources, Regression Methodology, and Correlation Windows
- ↳Dollar Strength and Metal Prices trend dashboard (historical + forward scenarios)
- ↳Rates, inflation, and commodity beta matrix
- ↳US dollar regime map versus metals performance
- ↳Liquidity and ETF flow trend indicators
- ↳Macro scenario outcomes for mining equities
- ↳Sensitivity matrix: price, cost, and policy variables
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