Industry Metals
Copper Scrap: Grade Spreads, Trade Reorientation, and Secondary Supply Economics
Examines the cathode-to-scrap discount across No.1 and No.2 grades, the direct-melt versus refinery processing split, and how China's tariff and import-standard shifts are redrawing US and European scrap export flows through late 2025.
$5,50041 pages · PDF · 2.3 MB
Summary
Secondary copper is a growing and price-responsive share of refined supply, and the trade that moves it is being redrawn. This report works through the scrap grades and the cathode-to-scrap discount, distinguishes direct-melt from refinery routes, and assesses how China's import-standard and tariff changes are shifting flows out of the United States and Europe. It frames how scrap availability flexes with the cathode price.
Updated Nov 2025 · By Mining Terminal Research
What's inside
Table of contents
- 01Executive Summary: Secondary Supply in a Tightening Primary Market
- 02Scrap Grade Taxonomy: No.1 Bare Bright, No.2, Brass, and Birch/Cliff Specifications
- 03Cathode-to-Scrap Discount Mechanics: How the Spreads Are Priced
- 04Direct-Melt Versus Refinery Route: Processing Economics and Smelter Scrap Ratios
- 05Secondary Refined Output: Regional Production and 2024 to 2025 Volume Trends
- 06Chinese Import Policy: Standard Reclassification, Tariff Transition, and Quality Gate
- 07Western Scrap Export Flows: US Tonnage Decline, European Diversion, and Destination Shifts
- 08Price-Responsive Supply: How Cathode Premiums and Scrap Spreads Drive Collection
- 09Capacity Build-Out: New Secondary Smelters in China, the US, and Europe
- 10Market Balance Scenarios: Scrap Availability Under High, Base, and Low Cathode Prices
- 11Risk Factors: Export Restriction Proposals, Impurity Thresholds, and Collection Infrastructure
- 12Data Sources and Methodology
Charts & data tables
- ↳Copper Scrap trend dashboard (historical + forward scenarios)
- ↳Mine output versus smelter utilization dashboard
- ↳Treatment-charge trend by quarter
- ↳Warehouse inventory and spread-monitor chart
- ↳Demand split by construction, manufacturing, and power
- ↳Sensitivity matrix: price, cost, and policy variables
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