Gallium and Germanium: Supply Shock, End-Use Exposure, and the Western Response

Gallium and germanium occupy a narrow but structurally exposed position: both are recovered as by-products of aluminum and zinc refining, annual volumes are tiny, and China commands near-monopoly share of primary output. The 2023 export-licensing controls and the December 2024 ban on US shipments drove a multi-fold gallium price spike by mid-2025, confirming the absence of any near-term substitute. End-use concentration in gallium-nitride power electronics, gallium-arsenide compound semiconductors, fiber optics, and military infrared optics ties the shock directly to defense procurement, data-center build-out, and EV drivetrains. Western responses, including US executive actions and a Greek gallium project targeting 2027, will not offset the structural gap before late decade, and China's November 2025 suspension of the ban offers only temporary relief.