Critical Minerals Supply Security: Chokepoints, Stockpiling, and Allied Sourcing

China's processing dominance is structural, not incidental: it holds roughly 70% of global critical-mineral refining and is the gatekeeper for gallium, rare earths, graphite, tungsten, and antimony. Export controls deployed in 2023 and 2025 have moved from targeted retaliation toward a broader instrument of trade pressure, driving gallium prices sharply higher and forcing some magnet supply chains to curtail. The US response has escalated, with an expanded Critical Minerals List, a larger National Defense Stockpile appropriation, and several billion dollars of Office of Strategic Capital commitments by early 2026. Allied and friend-shoring frameworks remain patchy, leaving midstream processing, the actual chokepoint, largely unresolved outside Chinese-controlled capacity. The report maps where Western supply chains stay most exposed and the policy instruments shaping the adjustment path.