Graphite Anode Supply: China's Processing Grip, Export Controls, and Ex-China AAM
China controls more than 90% of spherical graphite and synthetic anode-material output. The report traces the anode chain from flake through active anode material, the 2023 export-licensing shock, and whether ex-China capacity can scale against FEOC deadlines.
China's grip on active anode material is more concentrated at the processing stage than at the mine: even with diversified flake sourcing, less than 1% of uncoated spherical graphite was produced outside China as of 2025. The December 2023 export-licensing regime cut spherical graphite shipments sharply in early 2024, forcing battery makers to confront a supply chain they had underinvested in. This report sets announced ex-China anode capacity against the Foreign Entity of Concern graphite deadline that takes effect in 2027, and examines how a 2024 collapse in synthetic anode prices undercut the economics of greenfield natural-graphite projects in Mozambique, Canada, and Namibia. Silicon-anode blending offers a partial demand offset, but commercial capacity remains small.
What's inside
- 01Executive Summary: The Anode Chokepoint and Ex-China Race
- 02Graphite in the Battery Anode: Natural Flake, Spherical, and Synthetic
- 03China's Processing Grip: Mine-to-Anode Concentration
- 04Export Licensing: December 2023 Controls and 2024 Trade Flows
- 05Anode Cost Curve: Natural Versus Synthetic and the 2024 Price Collapse
- 06FEOC Exposure: Compliance Deadlines and Automaker Ledger Risk
- 07Demand to 2030: Anode Consumption Across EVs, Storage, and Electronics
- 08Silicon-Anode Substitution: Commercial Status and Blend Ratios
- 09Ex-China Capacity: Project-by-Project Credibility and Timelines
- 10Escalation Scenarios: Further Chinese Restrictions and Allied Responses
- 11Investment Implications and Watch Levels
- 12Data Sources, Pricing Methodology, and Coverage
- ↳Graphite Anode Supply trend dashboard (historical + forward scenarios)
- ↳AI infrastructure demand curve by mineral
- ↳Processing concentration map by country
- ↳Technology pathway adoption timelines
- ↳Supply-security stress-test matrix
- ↳Sensitivity matrix: price, cost, and policy variables
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